In their book Generations: The History of America’s Future, 1584 to 2069, William Strauss and Neil Howe identified four generational archetypes that appear again and again, one after another in an unbroken cycle. Lately:
Whether you agree with Strauss and Howe's work or not, their groundbreaking theories revolutionized generational thinking and has given historians a new way to look at modern history.
Blogging on Harvard Business, Tammy Erickson wonders Which Generation Will Give the U.S. Its Next President?
She notes that Strauss and Howe showed that Hero/Civic and Prophet/Idealist generations have historically produced the most U.S. presidents. The GI or Greatest Generation gave us Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, and the first Bush. The Silent generation has produced to vice presidents but no presidents. If elected, John McCain will be the first and probably last president from that period.
She then continues that Bill Clinton and George W. Bush are both Boomers from the Prophet/Idealist generation, and argues that Barack Obama is a Boomer as she uses the dates 1946 - 1964. Even using the traditional dates (1961 is the beginning of Generation X), one could argue that Obama (born 1961) is a cusper and identifies more closely with Boomers than Xers.
From this, Erickson makes some interesting observations:
Are there insights from this for today’s candidates? I’m struck that the Boomer candidates who seem to resonate the most strongly today seem to be those who can strike a strong idealistic chord. Obama and Huckabee’s strength certainly seems to stem from their articulation of strong values. Clinton’s victory speech in New Hampshire signaled a shift in this direction, as she described how she has now “found her voice.” This is perhaps not a time for emphasizing civic themes -- building new programs and institutions -- but touching idealistic hearts.
Will there be a future president from the next Strauss and Howe cycle, the “reactives” -- in this case, Generation X? Possibly. Both Truman and Eisenhower came from the previous cycle’s generation of reactives. However, Strauss and Howe, in 1991, predicted that this generation’s term of presidency, if it occurs, won’t begin until 2020 -- reflecting the likelihood of a continuing string of Boomers at the helm for the next decade.
After that, very likely, the next long stretch of presidencies will come from the next round of “civics” -- today’s Generation Y.
Delving into prophecy using generational theory is a fascinating endeavor, and one can certainly argue that Strauss and Howe got it right when, in 1991, they accurately predicted trends in the behavior of the Millennial generation.
In The Fourth Turning (1997), Strauss and Howe predict a time of great crises from which the next Hero generation will have to face, the Millennials. While many see the darkening of our future as something to fear, I find that viewing it as just another cycle of history makes the future less uncertain, in spite of not knowing exactly what the crises will be.
And I take great comfort in the thought that a generation of Heroes will be ready to overcome adversity. May they be as great as the last generation of Heroes.
Cool Invention: We just bought a Dyson vacuum, and it is indeed a superior product. Now Dyson has come up with a better way to dry your hands. Cool.
Cloaking: Lenses that bend light "the wrong way" could lead to an invisibility shield — or maybe just better glasses.
Now that's black! How about a surface that reflects no light.
Self-healing plastic skin: next stop, robots that bleed.
Synthetic Life: Scientists have created a new life by transferring genetic material from one bacterium into another. Once perfected, it is hoped that they can create custom microbes designed to produce fuel or eat up oil spills.
Ancient Rome -- digitally restored.
Faster Ocean Waves: Global warming is making "planetary waves" move faster. Sounds like a good source of energy, to me.
Fast Matter: Scientists have clocked matter shooting out of a dying star at 99.999% the speed of light.
No Black Holes? The event horizon of black holes contradicts quantum mechanics, and two researchers think they can explain what really happens: black holes are really just black stars.
3 Petaflops: IBM's Blue Gene/P supercomputer can do 3 quadrillion operations a second, or 3 petaflops. It can do 1 petaflop continuously in real-world operations.
Air Muscles: Japanese robot maker Squse unveiled a robotic hand weighing only 14 ounces with five human-sized fingers and artificial fibres that can be controlled by air pressure delicately enough to pick up an egg without breaking it.
DARPA Arms: But DARPA is overseeing the development of prosthetics that give feedback for pressure and eventually even temperature.
Tetrachromat: Some women may have four colour receptors rather than the usual three.
Blood Pressure Vaccine: A Swiss company claims to have a vaccine that combats high blood pressure. Just a shot every six months.
Marijuana Works: A double-blind, placebo-controlled trial indicates that pot helps HIV-positive patients gain weight, is well tolerated and does not impair cognitive performance. Think anyone stubbornly fighting medical marijuana is listening? Me either.
HIV Hope: Two advances in the multi-billion dollar War on AIDS. First, scientists have engineered an enzyme that appears to attack and remove the HIV virus from an infected cell. Second, there are prostitutes in Nairobi that are immune to HIV. Research indicates the women have unique protein molecules that help cells identify foreign invaders.
Fantastic Voyage: Israeli scientists have created a tiny robot that can navigate through tubes the width of human veins and arteries. It crawls along with tiny arms, and could even go upstream. A nice idea, but it's a long way from medical deployment.
Nuclear Rockets: A scientist says using nuclear rockets will mean building the moonbase in 9 trips instead of 12 and will save $4.5 billion. A few modifications on the 40-year-old technology would mean not "spewing radioactivity" on Earth.
Opportunity Descending: Mars rover Opportunity is about to crawl into Victoria crater. It has been investigating from the rim since last September. Watch a cool NASA animation about the crater.
Smart Cooking: A new theory says cooking meat made our ancestor's brains bigger. Way to go Homo erectus!
Giant Penguins roamed the earth 40 million years ago in Peru.
Erectus Rising: Speaking of Homo erectus, it is thought that our ancestor starting settling down about 10,000 years ago. But a German professor claims to have evidence that this actually started happening about 400,000 years ago. That changes everything.
Kitty Roots: Research indicates that domestic cats came from wild cats that interbred over 100,000 years ago in the Middle East. All I know is that if I see any of my cats facing east six times a day, I'm going to shoot the little bastard. That's all I need, a furry terrorist under my own roof. Careful, they're cunning!
Bad Burqa: God created us naked for a reason. Turns out that Muslim women who cover themselves completely are deficient in vitamin D, which others get from the sun. In other words, strict Islam makes women sick.
Hatshepsut Found: In the "find of the century", the 3,000-year-old mummy of Queen Hatshepsut has been found. Hatshepsut was Egypt's most powerful female ruler, often appearing in a fake beard.
Peanut Butter Diamonds: Yes, it's possible to squeeze and heat peanut butter until it turns into a diamond. But this isn't really news — we've been doing it for the last 50 years.
Changing Stripes: A tiger may not be able to change its stripes, but Jupiter can. New images from the Hubble and the spacecraft New Horizons. And speaking of stripes, this is the strangest looking zorse, ever.
An objective review of the movie 300, subtitled The story behind Frank Miller's '300':
Nevertheless, with its digital scenery, its monstrous villains, its muscular, superheroic Spartans, and its Matrixesque high-speed camerawork, 300 is a genuine spectacle, for good and ill. It creates a lurid phantasmagoria of Thermopylae, a fascinating, bizarre hallucination which concentrates the mind on the Three Hundred's brutal fate--as well as the drama of free men choosing to fight and die to oppose a tyrant's army.
Those interested in how the movie compares to what actually happened should read it.
For those really interested, I recommend Last Stand of The 300 on the History channel. You will get an understanding as to just how pivotal this battle really was.
Otherwise, you can try this 4-minute video on the History Channel's site. Some of the "facts" differ from those in the documentary, and the sound was a little garbled for me. Still, fairly interesting.
One of every seven Brazilian legislators are being investigated on charges ranging from corruption, embezzlement and bodily harm to manslaughter -- and that's only taking the federal courts into account.
Claudio Abramo, of the non-governmental organization Transparencia Brazil, said the numbers also were a worrying indication of corruption at local and regional levels of government.
Gee, ya think?
Villagers are puzzled by the Chinese government's decision to paint a mountain green. Theories range from improving the area's feng shui to the government wishing to appear more "green" -- the barren mountain used to be a rock quarry.
Another Hollywood myth explodes: the recent discovery of an ancient coin reveals that Cleopatra wasn't all that good looking.
Hey ladies, we just can't help it:
When a man fails to help out around the house, his poor performance might be related to a subconscious tendency to resist doing anything his wife wants, a new study suggests.
We've known for a while that our desks and computer keyboards are little germ factories. But now we find that women's work spaces have four times the bacteria than their male counterparts. My childhood best friend was right -- women are gross!
Microsoft released the first security fix for Vista on patch Tuesday. This one is especially ironic for the OS billed as the "most secure ever": the hole allows someone to take complete control of your computer.
Glenn Reynolds has a few links that should put a stake in the heart of the revisionist claims that returning Vietnam vets were never spat on.
Hat Tip to non-blogging Advised by Wolves.
In remembrance, a reminder of determination and valor as the Battered Bastards of the Bastion of Bastogne stood their ground.
While evil lurks in the hearts of men and fascism threatens to engulf the world once again, this is a story that should be told every Christmas.
Advised by Wolves gives the heads up that the History Channel begins a new series tonight that looks fair to middlin' cool. Dogfights:
The new series DOG FIGHTS recreates famous battles using state-of-the-art computer graphics. With up to 25 percent of the program consisting of animation, viewers will feel like they're in the battle, facing the enemy. First-hand accounts will drive the story. Rare archival footage and original shooting supplement the remarkable computer graphics.
65 years ago today this nation was the target of an ignominious attack at Pearl Harbor.
The United States responded, giving rise to the greatest generation this nation has ever known. The enemy had a sick ideology and a propaganda machine so effective that Japanese women were throwing their children off of cliffs onto jagged rocks in the sea below rather than let them fall into the hands of the advancing Americans.
Our fathers and grandfathers crushed the enemy, insisting on unconditional surrender in order to stamp out all vestiges of the malevolent culture that wanted to destroy us and dominate the world.
They then aided the conquered people in rebuilding their nation, introducing democracy where there had never been such a thing. Who would have thought that democracy could take hold in a nation so entrenched in class stratification and the Bushido code, in a country with centuries of history of warlords and samurai, with a citizenry of peasants that literally thought of their emperor as a god?
The greatest generation not only thought so, they believed so. And democracy did take hold, and more. It flourished and gave rise to one of the great friendships of our times. America and Japan are partners on every level: politically, economically and, to a great extent, philosophically.
Blogging Tennessee state representative Stacey Campfield has a series of photos on that fateful day that changed the history of the world forever. Just start at the top and scroll start scrolling.
As you look at those photos, I pray that they remind you that men are capable of great evil, and that this has not changed.
Today we are faced with a sinister force that has at its core a malignancy just as fearful, just as hateful, just as grotesque, just as viscous, just as vile and just as dangerous as that which our nation faced 65 years ago.
There is great evil in the world still, and it threatens the lives of the children and the children's children of the greatest generation.
I pray that in the end, we will have the courage and perseverance of those we remember today.
Professor Richard Brilliant of Columbia University, in the six hour series Rome: Power & Glory:
The aqueducts of Rome reached 60 and 70 miles into the hills to guarantee a continual flow of fresh water into the city. That flow of fresh water provided enough water, gallons per person per day, that was not equaled by the city of Rome until the 1950s.
Recently declassified documents reveal that Nixon was considering using nuclear bombs to bring an end to the Vietnam war in an operation code named "Duck Hook":
But Nixon abandoned Duck Hook shortly after Oct. 2. Both his secretaries of Defense and State, Melvin Laird and William Rogers, opposed the plan. Nixon apparently also began to doubt whether he could sustain public support for the three- to six-month period the plan might require. He also concluded that his military threats against the North Vietnamese had no effect.
Threats are rarely useful. For instance, French threats of economic sanctions against Iran. Uh, OK, French threats of anything (except surrender — those are always taken seriously).
Indeed, the time and place to use nukes in Vietnam was in 1953 in a place called Dien Bien Phu. The French were trying for a decisive military victory out in the middle of nowhere. Instead, General Vo Nguyen Giap conducted a brilliant 56-day siege that ended with at least 2,200 dead Frenchmen (including many of the elite Foreign Legion) and a French surrender of 11,000 men (of which a little over 4,000 survived captivity).
If the French had accepted the two tactical nukes that Eisenhower offered, history would have turned out vastly different.
Just as an aside, fourteen years later General Giap tried to do the same thing to an American Marine base called Khe Sanh. 205 American soldiers were killed while ten to fifteen thousand Viet Min died before they gave up eleven weeks later and trickled back into the jungle. When the NVA shut down the airstrip, the French had resorted to high-altitude parachute drops resulting in a great many supplies, ammunition and even vital intelligence landing outside the base and falling into enemy hands. At Khe Sanh, the U.S. Army 109th Quartermaster Company used the Low Altitude Parachute Extraction System (LAPES) with great success. The seige for Khe Sanh was a great American military victory (achieved without dipping into the nuclear arsenal) that was turned into a major North Vietnamese propaganda win by our Fourth Estate.
Technorati Tags: Richard Nixon, Vietnam, Nuclear Weapons, Military History, Dien Bien Phu, Khe Sanh, History, Famous French Military Defeats, Famous American Military Victories, Fourth Estate Equals Fifth Column.
The author concludes that there were several factors that contributed to the Ferguson's failure, but I found this one to be most interesting:
As early as 1781, a prominent Englishman, Joseph Galloway, accused [Sir William Howe, commander of British forces in North America] of "losing the war on purpose." He charged that Howe, a member of Britain's Whig Party, had been an American sympathizer for years. When Howe had stood for Parliament in Nottingham in 1775, he said he would never fight against the Americans. But when the King ordered him to Boston, Howe could not refuse.History is indeed fascinating.For years Americans had wondered why every time Howe had the Continental army nearly beaten, he refused victory. Squandered opportunities included: Long Island, where he had to issue repeatedly his order to halt his troops, preventing them from storming Brooklyn Heights; White Plains; Chatterton's Hill; Brandywine, where he could have followed up and destroyed Washington's army; and Valley Forge, when the Americans were sick, nearly helpless, and low on rations and ammunition. After Long Island, American General Israel Putnam said, "General Howe is either our friend or no general."
[HT to non-blogging Advised by Wolves]
Technorati Tags: American History, Ferguson Rifle, Revolutionary War, American Revolution.